Black Friday is Friday 27 November. Today is 18 October. That is six weeks, and six weeks is enough if you stop planning and start doing the few things that move money.
Let’s be honest first. The businesses that win this season started in September. They have their lists built, their checkouts tested and their WhatsApp replies set up. You are behind them. But behind is not out, and most of your competitors have done none of it.
And the season is real. “Black Friday” in Nigeria stopped being a Friday a while ago. Jumia ran its 2025 event from 31 October to 30 November, and reported that in Nigeria its orders grew 28% and its sales value 45% over the two months to 30 November. Chowdeck reported ₦1.4 billion in sales between 28 November and 1 December, and said it had fulfilled 51,000 orders by 9pm on the Friday, more than double its 2024 volume.
The buyers are planning too. Jumia reported more wishlist and add-to-cart activity before its sales period began, and its Nigeria chief says households are using online shopping to defend their purchasing power. People are comparing, saving and waiting. The question is whether they find you ready.
Three Waves, Three Different Games
- The Black Friday month (late October to November). Deal-hunting season. The game is products, price and trust, and it now covers everything from electronics to groceries to food delivery.
- Detty December (early December to New Year). The spending changes character, from stocking up to celebrating. Events, food, fashion, beauty, hospitality and gifting all surge, and returning diaspora customers find businesses the way strangers do, through Google Maps, reviews, Instagram and group chats. Services get swept up too, from salons to cleaners.
- The January cliff. Spending stops as suddenly as it started, and the businesses that treated everyone as a one-off buyer face the silence alone. What you do with the season’s new customers decides whether this was a spike or a step up.
The Six-Week Plan
This week (19 to 25 October). Fix what leaks. The season is a load test. Whatever is slow or broken today becomes a flood in November. Test your checkout against the four fears. Put automation on your WhatsApp for the enquiry surge, because the 10pm flood will not wait for opening hours. Confirm stock and delivery honestly. And settle your margin maths now. Work out what you can really discount, on what volume, and where the line is.
26 October to 8 November. Build the audience you will sell to. This is the one job that cannot wait. Run an early-access sign-up (“Black Friday list, see the deals first”) and grow your WhatsApp and email lists with the season itself as the reason to join. Get consent as you collect each number or address. Announcing deals to an audience you built yourself costs you nothing. Reaching strangers while every brand is bidding for the same shoppers is the expensive alternative.
One trust rule decides everything in this market. Fake discounts are remembered longer than real ones. Shoppers are tracking prices before the sale starts, so an inflate-then-slash trick is one your buyers can check. A few genuine offers, even modest ones framed honestly, beat a catalogue of theatrical 70%-offs. In the noisiest month of the year, being the business whose prices can be checked is a positioning campaign dressed as a promotion.
9 to 26 November. Line up honest offers and warm the list. Pick a small number of real, checkable deals. Tell your list what is coming and when, so that Friday is a reminder, not an introduction. Write the messages now, not on the night.
27 November to 1 December. Run it, and keep replies fast. Put your deals everywhere your buyers are, on your site, your WhatsApp status, Instagram and your list. Keep scarcity honest, with real stock counts and real deadlines. And protect the discipline that outsells any discount, which is answering quickly under load. The season’s enquiries are the hottest of the year and the easiest to lose.
December and January. Collect the real prize. Turn the message to gifting, event readiness and opening hours (“open till 9pm through 23 December”), and show proof to returning customers, like fresh reviews, an active profile and current photos. Every buyer goes into your records with consent captured. Your thank-you message in early January, while the memory is warm, is where a season of strangers starts becoming repeat customers, whose third purchase is where the profit lives.
What to Skip This Year
Skip the new brand campaign, the new website and the deep discount on everything. None of them can be done well in six weeks, and none of them fixes a slow checkout or an unanswered WhatsApp. Skip chasing the businesses that started in September. You cannot match their calendar, but you can match their readiness on the day.
Four Dates for Your Calendar Today
Open your calendar and mark four dates. By 25 October, your checkout, WhatsApp, stock and margins are tested. By 8 November, your early-access list is built, with consent. On 27 November, your first honest offer goes live. And in early January, a follow-up goes to everyone who bought. Then work backwards from each one.
The season will send you more demand than any other stretch of your year. The only question it asks is whether anyone is home when it knocks.
If you’d like to know which part of your business will crack first under the load, the free 2-minute diagnostic shows which of your four walls is weakest.
Businesses spending ₦1M or more a month on marketing also qualify for a free 30-minute Leak Check, with no card and no obligation. There is still time to book one before 27 November.
Figures come from Jumia’s preliminary, unaudited results for the two months to 30 November 2025, reported Nigeria results from Jumia’s third-quarter 2025 update, and Chowdeck’s reported Black Friday 2025 results. Seasonal patterns vary by year and category, and platform campaign dates change annually. This article is general information, not a guarantee of results.
Sources: Jumia preliminary KPIs, two months to 30 November 2025; The Condia on Jumia Nigeria and Ghana; TechCabal on Chowdeck; Vanguard via allAfrica on Jumia Q3 2025.
This article covers one part of a bigger system. Our guide to digital marketing in Nigeria shows how the four walls fit together, and the order to build them in.
